Japan is poised to experience a notable shift in its global economic standing by 2027, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF forecasts that Japan will drop from its current fourth position to sixth in terms of nominal gross domestic product (GDP), as it is overtaken by both India and the United Kingdom.
This change is attributed to Japan’s projected nominal GDP figures of $4.34 trillion in 2026 and $4.47 trillion in 2027. The Japanese economy faces challenges such as a weak yen against the US dollar and slow economic growth, contributing to its declining rank among the world’s largest economies.
In contrast, India is set to ascend from sixth to fourth place globally, with its GDP expected to reach $4.52 trillion by 2027. This growth is fueled by robust domestic demand and a thriving services sector, with India’s real GDP anticipated to grow by 7% annually on a fiscal-year basis in both 2026 and 2027.
The United Kingdom is also projected to surpass Japan, with a GDP forecast of approximately $4.49 trillion in 2027. The UK’s economic growth, although more modest, is expected to be 1.3% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, as per IMF estimates.
Japan, once the world’s second-largest economy for many years, was previously overtaken by China in 2010 and later by Germany in 2023, which saw it slipping to fourth place. These latest projections underscore the dynamic shifts in global economic power, highlighting India’s growing influence on the world stage.